Description

The risk that politicians decide to split up the main rail network franchise, have a public tender for all or part of the franchise or to split off NS Stations, which would lead to a loss of some business operations and put pressure on profitability.

Explanation

In the spring, the Dutch government announced a market regulation study in response to the Fyra inquiry. The intention is that this study will give insight into the most effective way of safeguarding the quality and affordability of rail transport and the extent to which this can be accompanied by the free operation of market forces. The next government will be able to draw conclusions on the basis of the study. At the request of the Lower House of Parliament, the study will also look at the intertwining of different NS operations, such as transport on the main rail network and the operation of stations in the Netherlands. Furthermore, a comparison will be made with other rail companies in the EU and EU rules as set out in the Fourth Railway Package will be taken into account.

Measures

Various improvement programmes are being implemented within NS. These programmes should have an effect on our performance, making it good enough to increase the likelihood of a private tender to award the main rail network franchise.
NS has set up a team to deal with the market regulation issue consisting of staff from the strategy department and various experts within the organisation who will be providing the investigative committee with the information they require. This team will also consider the consequences of the different scenarios for NS and the business model.

Risk control trend

NS has taken measures to deal with this strategic risk. The investigative committee will identify the various advantages and disadvantages of the different scenarios for market regulation. Politicians can then make their decisions. There are therefore many uncertain factors in this issue. The degree of risk control is therefore unchanged.

Residual risk

Medium. The current risk profile does not yet match the desired risk profile.