Description

The risk that, due to a lack of capacity for maintaining, combining and handling rolling stock and insufficient qualified staff, we are unable to realise the peak introduction of new rolling stock on time and in accordance with the envisaged quality requirements, leading to pressure on the transport capacity and a failure to provide our customers with the degree of comfort that they demand.

Explanation

NS has purchased a great deal of new rolling stock over a relatively short period and is also reintroducing refurbished rolling stock. At the same time, the nature of the maintenance task is changing because systems are now installed on the train roof rather than under the train and because of new technology, while the allocation of the rolling stock to the various maintenance locations has also changed. The maintenance capacity schedule is tight and leaves no room anymore for overruns. For combining and handling rolling stock, supplementary measures are required from the sector (ProRail, the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, NS and other carriers) if the growing shortages are to be dealt with appropriately. Extensions to the timetable and interruptions to services due to the considerable amount of engineering work are putting further pressure on capacity on the railways. Finally, we need to take care that our staff and the organisation do not become overburdened by the many changes that are already taking place. This will make demands on the preparations and power to execute tasks within our organisation but we are also dependent to some extent on the power of our sectoral partners to execute tasks.

Measures

NS has initiated two programmes: the Handling and Combining Capacity programme together with ProRail and the Smooth Introduction programme. The first programme will give a better understanding of bottlenecks in the capacity for combining and handling rolling stock and will result in possible solutions. The Smooth Introduction programme will give an overview and coordinate the introduction of new rolling stock in the standing organisation. This includes ensuring there is sufficient maintenance capacity. This will increase predictability, reliability and realism in the introduction of new and refurbished rolling stock. It will also show which are the critical resources (in terms of availability and expertise) so that they can be deployed effectively and so that any problems can be identified in good time. There is also a larger technical reserve on hand for if problems arise with the operational deployment of new rolling stock.

Risk control trend

While the introduction of the Flirt went smoothly, the risk has increased. The schedule is now on the critical path, despite the greater insights. This means that every delay has become an issue. In the next while, decisions will be taken regarding the portfolio of locations for combining, handling and maintaining rolling stock. Each of these choices will in turn incur a certain risk profile.

Residual risk

High. Despite the measures that have been taken, the residual risk remains high at present because there are many uncertainties concerning the further implementation. The current risk profile does not as yet match the desired risk profile.